Evolving Turkey-Iran Relations and Implications for Regional Reordering

Institute:

Chatham House

Project members:

Galip Dalay, Senior Consulting Fellow, Turkey Initiative, Middle East and North Africa Programme, Chatham House
Sanam Vakil, Director, Middle East and North Africa Programme, Chatham House
Renad Mansour, Senior Research Fellow, Middle East and North Africa Programme and Director of the Iraq Initiative, Chatham House

Project Duration: Oct 2024 – Sep 2025

Contact:

Galip Dalay, email: gdalay@chathamhouse.org 
Reni Zhelyazkova, email: rzhelyazkova@chathamhouse.org

The 2016-2020/21 period in Turkey-Iran relations—which was marked by both sides' structured cooperation through the Astana Process and Sochi summits on conflict management in Syria, their largely shared opposition to US policy in Syria and at the broader regional level, to Iraqi Kurdistan's independence referendum, and to the blockade of Qatar—had run its course. However, the new shape of these bilateral relations remained undefined, and understanding them is essential to effective policymaking in the region. How they evolve has direct ramifications for Iraq, Syria, regional Kurdish geopolitics, and the process of regional reordering and connectivity in the Middle East and South Caucasus. They also have direct implications for US and European policymaking and their role in the region.

This project studied the evolving nature of Turkey-Iran relations through Iraqi, Syrian and regional Kurdish politics. It examined how Turkey and Iran approached regional connectivity projects and major regional initiatives, and how on-going regional developments, including the war in Gaza, had impacted and might continue to impact Turkey-Iran relations and EU, US and UK security considerations and policy towards the two countries.

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