An elderly man holds Turkish and Libyan flags during a protest in Tripoli's Martyrs' Square on January 10, 2020, against eastern military commander Khalifa Haftar and in support of the UN-recognized Government of National Accord (GNA).

Turkey’s Peacebuilding in a Disordered Middle East

Institute:

Royal United Services Institute for Defence and Security Studies (RUSI)

Project members:

Dr Burcu Özçelik, Senior Middle East Fellow, RUSI
Dr Neil Melvin, Director, International Security, RUSI
Madison Agresti, International Security Programme Manager, RUSI

Project Duration: Oct 2024 – April 2026

Contact:

Burcu Özçelik, email: burcuo@rusi.org
Madison Agresti, email: madisona@rusi.org 


Over the last two decades, Turkey had extended its footprint across large swathes of territory in the Middle East and North Africa. Ankara variously played the roles of mediator, spoiler and sponsor in regional crises and armed conflicts, notably aspiring for recognition as a peace broker in Israel–Palestine, Sudan and Libya. Turkey described its approach as "a third voice" advocating for "peaceful resolutions" in the region. In reality, Turkey’s track record and the impact of its overtures on the ground were mixed.

Since the 7 October 2023 Hamas attacks and the subsequent Israeli military operations inside Gaza, the Middle East had been confronted with unprecedented upheaval. This examination of Turkey’s regional peacebuilding interventions facilitated a better understanding of the dynamics at play in the emergent regional security order. Rather than a grand strategy, Turkish foreign policy drew upon a toolbox that prioritised regionalism, de-escalation and expedient conflict resolution tactics that risked reinforcing an illiberal Middle East, with implications for regional stability and the international liberal peacebuilding order that gained ascendency from the 1990s.

A central question was whether Turkey’s methods of engagement in these crises were promoting new, or entrenching established, authoritarian actors, processes and/or outcomes at the local and regional levels. The project examined whether Turkey’s interventions in the Palestinian conflict, Syria and Iraq (via policies affecting Kurdish communities and actors), consciously or inadvertently, enabled non-democratic forms of local rule. Such an examination was important because the unintended and illiberal impact of external interventions at this critical moment in the Middle East could hinder the effective delivery of humanitarian aid, put civilians, civil society and UN personnel at risk, empower armed non-state actors and deter inclusive and lasting political settlements. The proposed project made policy recommendations for European and British policymakers seeking to collaborate with Turkey in the aftermath of the war in Gaza, as well as to seek a political settlement in Syria and promote stability in Iraq

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