The New Rules of the Game in the Horn of Africa - Hedging, Rivalry, and Partnership between Turkey, Egypt, and Ethiopia

The strategic landscape of the Horn of Africa has shifted from ideological confrontation to competitive cooperation, with Turkey, Egypt, and Ethiopia recalibrating their positions amid intensifying global rivalries. As Ankara shifts from episodic engagement to structural presence, combining infrastructure investment, security partnerships, and crisis mediation, it has become a pivotal actor in the Horn of Africa. Egypt, long wary of Turkey's growing footprint, now balances guarded engagement with persistent strategic anxieties, while Ethiopia views Turkey as a key partner for its industrialisation, the modernisation of its military, and its quest for maritime access. This analysis unpacks how these evolving relationships are reshaping regional power dynamics and what this volatile equilibrium means for a Europe increasingly confronted with diminishing influence yet rising strategic exposure in the Red Sea corridor.