Swedish and Finnish Perceptions of Turkey’s Role in European Security

In light of ongoing changes in Europe’s security architecture resulting from Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, this report investigates Finnish and Swedish views on Turkey’s place in the emerging arrangements. The report finds that the difficult experience with Turkey during the NATO accession process negatively impacted perceptions of Turkey in both countries, and that there are real divergences between them and Turkey with regard to perceptions and interests. On the other hand, Finnish and Swedish foreign policy and national security officials today acknowledge Turkey’s importance as a military power as well as the benefits of maintaining constructive relations with Ankara. The increasing unreliability of the United States as an ally can further underline Turkey’s importance in the eyes of the two Nordic NATO members and creates both opportunities and risks for Turkey as European cooperation on defence and security deepens.