Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan attends the SAHA 2026 International Defence and Aerospace Exhibition Closing Event at Istanbul Expo Center in Istanbul, Türkiye, on May 8, 2026.

Turkey in Conflict Zones: Stabiliser or Disruptor?

Working Group coordinated by Nebahat Tanrıverdi Yaşar (CATS Visiting Fellow)

 

Over the past decade, Turkey has emerged as an increasingly relevant actor in conflict zones and conflict-affected states across the Middle East and Africa, including Syria, Libya, the Horn of Africa, Sudan, and the Sahel. Ankara maintains a presence in those countries via both state and non-state institutions; and it deploys a wide array of instruments in areas that range from security assistance and defence cooperation to economic investment and mediation. Turkey’s growing role in conflict zones is unfolding amid intense regional competition, to which Ankara itself is simultaneously contributing.

Existing research tends to focus on individual dimensions of Turkey’s engagement in conflict zones, such as diplomatic activism, defence exports, and regional geopolitics. To date, little attention has been paid to the implications of its involvement for conflict dynamics. Turkey is frequently portrayed either as a stabilising actor that supports mediation, capacity-building, and conflict containment or as a disruptive force that fuels militarisation and regional rivalries. The empirical evidence is mixed. Turkey’s long-term security assistance and institutional support for Somalia have contributed to elements of state consolidation, while its military intervention in Libya in 2020 helped prevent further escalation. Moreover, Turkish mediation efforts contributed to de-escalating tensions between Somalia and Ethiopia.  On the other hand, Turkish defence cooperation and partisan alignments in Libya, Sudan, Ethiopia, and parts of the Sahel have, at times, reinforced militarisation and rejigged local power balances.

Against this background, CATS has launched a new working group on Turkey’s engagement in conflict zones. The group’s aim is i) to examine the conditions under which Turkey acts as stabiliser or disruptor and ii) to analyse the motivations, goals, and instruments shaping Turkish engagement in conflict zones and conflict-ridden states. The working group will hold separate meetings to discuss Turkish engagement in Sudan, Somalia, Libya, and Syria as well as with the Alliance of Sahel States (AES). The meetings on the AES, Sudan, and Somalia are to be organised in cooperation with the European Council on Foreign Affairs (ECFR).

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