Syria: Risks and Opportunities for EU-Turkey Cooperation

Institute:

Institute of European Studies, Vrije Universiteit Brussels (VUB)

Project Members:

Zafer Kizilkaya, VUB
Mohammad Salman, VUB

Project Duration: Sep 2020 – Dec 2021

Contact:

Zafer Kızılkaya, email: Zafer.Kizilkaya@vub.be

In the years leading up to this project, developments in Syria had added an extra layer to the already complicated relationship between the EU and Turkey. Cooperation and discord had mainly centred on two key issues: the refugee crisis and the threat of terrorism, which was associated with the phenomenon of European foreign fighters. Accordingly, most of the academic and non-academic research output had focused on the problems, opportunities and policy proposals concerning these two priorities. Turkey’s repositioning in Syria, its military action in the northern part of the country and its stance on the future of Syria were not clearly understood in the West. This not only hindered the development of a coherent Turkey policy within the EU but also precluded potential cooperation between the EU and Turkey in rebuilding war-torn Syria. This project aimed to identify opportunities and constraints for EU–Turkey cooperation in Syria in two parts:

In the first phase, the focus was on the Turkish sphere of influence in northern Syria. Here, a distinction was made between Turkish policies regarding the areas west of the Euphrates (the Idlib region and the Turkish-controlled areas between Jarablus, Azaz and Al Bab) and east of the Euphrates, where Turkey had conducted an offensive in October 2019. The goal was to examine Turkey’s foreign policy objectives in both areas, explore potential future scenarios based on developments on the ground, and identify policy alternatives for the EU.

• Should the EU be ignorant, permissive or opposed to the existing enlargement of the Turkish presence in northern Syria?
• What were the potential areas of cooperation between the EU and Turkey in the Idlib province as well as the Turkish-controlled areas to the east and west of the Euphrates River?

In the second phase, the focus was on the broader peacebuilding efforts in Syria. This included an analysis of the mediation processes of Geneva, Astana and other multilateral initiatives which aimed to reach a negotiated agreement.

• What were the opportunities and constraints for the EU and Turkey to cooperate in efforts to achieve a durable peace in Syria?
• How did Turkey and the EU play a role in addressing the challenges in reconstruction, peacebuilding and reconciliation efforts in Syria?

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