The Case of İmamoğlu: Justice as an Instrument of Power in Turkey

One year after the arrest of Istanbul Mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu, Turkey’s political situation remains tense. This is particularly visible in the criminal proceedings against the opposition politician, which have political significance far beyond the courtroom. The start of the trial on 9 March was chaotic: The courtroom became a political stage when İmamoğlu struck a combative tone, prompting the judge to break off the session and clear the hall. The sequence of events shows how sensitive the proceedings are and how deeply doubts about their legality are shaping public debate.

The Trial Is Polarising the Public and Undermining Trust in the Justice System

For many observers, more is at stake than İmamoğlu’s political fate. It is also a question of whether President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan can maintain his power. He is under pressure because of foreign policy concerns related to the war involving the United States, Israel, and Iran – a conflict Turkey prefers to stay out of – as well as continuing economic difficulties at home. At the same time, his approval ratings are falling.

A large segment of the population considers the criminal proceedings to be politically motivated. Outside Erdoğan’s support base and the pro-government media, an alternative narrative has taken hold: İmamoğlu has been indicted because he triumphed four times against Erdoğan’s Justice and Development Party (AKP) in Istanbul, and he stands a strong chance of becoming the opposition’s presidential candidate.

Lawyers regard the 3,739-page indictment as resting on thin evidence. They doubt that it is necessary to keep the defendants – first and foremost İmamoğlu – in custody during the trial. The indictment is based on statements given by undisclosed witnesses, and it remains imprecise in parts. Scepticism is also fuelled by the fact that prosecutor Akın Gürlek is known for legally controversial cases against opposition members and those critical of the government. Gürlek is now Minister of Justice, whose appointment is being challenged in court.

There are strong indications that the proceedings serve political ends. The opposition is to be weakened, the Republican People's Party (CHP) politically paralysed, and its leadership persuaded to drop İmamoğlu’s candidacy.

Several CHP district mayors were removed from office and arrested. Some switched to the AKP under pressure arising from the threat of criminal proceedings, while numerous critics were also arrested. Selahattin Demirtaş, former leader of the predecessor party of today’s Peoples' Equality and Democracy Party (DEM party), remains in prison despite rulings by the European Court of Human Rights. In several municipalities in south-eastern Turkey, elected mayors of DEM party continue to be replaced by government-appointed trustees.

How Things Could Proceed in the Trial 

As with the Ergenekon trials, the outcome of the case against İmamoğlu is likely to depend heavily on the political climate. In that mammoth case, which took place between 2007 and 2013, military officials, journalists, and academics were charged with allegedly plotting a conspiracy against the government. Many of the sentences were later overturned.

The verdict in the İmamoğlu trial may be delayed or shaped in such a way as to eliminate İmamoğlu as a presidential candidate. The CHP would be weakened, while Erdoğan’s governing bloc would be able to consolidate its autocratic rule. However, the prerequisite for Erdoğan’s renewed candidacy would be either early elections triggered by the dissolution of parliament or a constitutional amendment.

Since Turkey’s economy lacks momentum and broad segments of the population are suffering from a loss of purchasing power, the de-escalation of the Kurdish conflict could become a decisive factor for electoral success. However, the condition for this would be that the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) is disarmed, which would require the CHP to continue supporting the process.

This gives the CHP, as the second strongest parliamentary group, a potentially important negotiating position vis-à-vis the government. If the party leadership is wise, it could help secure İmamoğlu’s release from prison or even his acquittal.